This article examines the mechanisms for forecasting and effectively managing sudden political and economic crises arising in the system of international relations. The role of strategic analysis methods in ensuring states' preparedness for external threats under the conditions of contemporary geopolitical tensions and uncertainties is analyzed. Furthermore, the possibilities of using widely accepted methods in world political science, such as Delphi, SWOT, and scenario planning, for the early detection of crises are highlighted. Special attention is paid to modeling unexpected external risks and improving diplomatic crisis management in Uzbekistan's foreign policy and economic activities.

international system, unexpected crises, strategic analysis, early detection, crisis management, geopolitical risk, scenario method, foreign policy, Uzbekistan.

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